The Last Dictatorship of Europe
Written by Ruwan Jinadasa
The Last Dictatorship of Europe
A look into the Belarus Election
On the 9th of August, Belarus went to the polls to elect a president. Although it is quite a young nation, only being founded in 1994, they have had the same president since their independence from the Soviet Union. This leads to the almost obvious explanation of foul play, in favour of the president Mr Lukashenko. However, after being elected again for another 6th term, Mr Lukashenko faces serious political contest from a surprise challenger, whose name is Svetlana Tikhanoskaya. She is the wife of a disqualified opposition candidate, and has become the unlikely face of political reform in Belarus.
History of Belarus and it’s politics
Belarus joined Russia in the Soviet Union in 1922, and has continued to have a close relationship with them. After the disillusion of the Soviet Union, and independence of Belarus, Mr Lukashenko was elected as a ‘Democratic Leader’. He then preceded to hold a definitely trustworthy referendum (notice the sarcasm hehe) in 1996, in order to increase his power as president to reduce the power of the legislature that could impeach him. This caused term limits to become abolished, making his power almost absolute.
Although the Lukashenko government is described as democratic, many say otherwise. A term that is often used to describe post-soviet union nations, competitive authoritarianism, better describes the current state of Belarus. The term is used to describes countries which are not technically authoritarian neither democratic. Belarus is technically democratic, since opposition parties do exist, however the obstacles which these parties encounter make it almost impossible to win the election. To be classed as a competitive authoritarian regime, the country must be lacking the following: free elections, protection of civil liberties and a level playing field. According to the constitution of Belarus, none of these principles are broken, but due to the surge of Lukashenko’s power, many things go unnoticed.
“An authoritarian style of rule is characteristic of me, and I have always admitted it,”
Freedom house, which is a US based non profit organisation which conducts research and advocacy on democracy and political freedom, stated that Belarus is fully authoritarian, due to: media coverage failing to help voters make informed decisions, irregularities in vote counting, limitation of journalist freedom and more. All of these violate the principles of a democracy, despite the constitution defending democratic principles.
The Latest Election
Mr Lukashenko won his sixth presidential election, claiming 80 per cent of the vote, which critics say is an impossibly wide margin of victory.
This year, Lukashenko had two main rivals, but were then banned out of the race (hmm I wonder why). The first rival, was imprisoned for money laundering and the second was denied registration as a candidate. However, there was another challenger, Svetlana Tikhanoskaya, who Mr Lukashenko did not really count as a threat.
“A female president would collapse, poor thing”
Ms Tikhanoskaya took up the presidential bid, after her husband, Sergei Tikhanovsky, was arrested two days after announcing he planned to run for president. Ms Tikhanovskaya was backed by two other opposition campaigns whose candidates were barred from contesting the election. Positioning herself as “an ordinary woman, a mother and a wife”, Ms Tikhanouskaya has inspired tens of thousands to attend public mass rallies in defiance of government crackdowns.
The opposition rally in the capital, Minsk, with an estimate of 100,000 - 200,000 people
The protests
Thousands of Belarusian opposition supporters have since taken to the streets claiming the vote was rigged. But they've been met by a fierce police crackdown, which has included the use of batons and rubber bullets on protesters by authorities. At least 6,700 people have been arrested since the start of the protests, with officials confirming at least two deaths.
An official report said 65,000 people had attended the presidential rally but unofficial estimates were as low as 10,000. Unofficial estimates for the opposition gathering ranged between 100,000 and 220,000. There were reports of state sector workers being forced to attend Mr Lukashenko's rally or face the threat of losing their jobs. As the president spoke, the anti-Lukashenko protesters gathered for a peaceful rally near a war memorial in the centre of Minsk.
The pressure on Lukashenko is increasing, with protests spreading throughout the country.
“We held the election. Until you kill me, there will be no other election.”
Last week, workers at state-run factories walked out in solidarity with the protesters, and more strikes are planned for this week, increasing the pressure on Mr Lukashenko. At state TV, staff walked out in protest against censorship and the election results.
The opposition flag, white with a red stripe, has become related with the movement and is seen at every rally. Protesters also carry flowers and balloons to show that their movement is peaceful.
Ms Tikhanovskaya, who left for Lithuania after denouncing the results, insists that where votes were properly counted, she won support ranging from 60% to 70%. In a video message released last Monday, she said she was ready to become a "national leader" in order to restore calm and normality, freeing political prisoners and preparing for new elections.
EU leaders held an emergency video summit last Wednesday. EU foreign ministers agreed last week to prepare new sanctions against Belarusian officials responsible for "violence, repression and the falsification of election results". The UK said on Monday it did not accept the results of the "fraudulent" election. "The world has watched with horror at the violence used by the Belarusian authorities to suppress the peaceful protests that followed this fraudulent presidential election," said Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab in a statement. "The UK does not accept the results."
The US has condemned the election as "not free and fair".
President Lukashenko has sought Russian help, saying President Vladimir Putin has promised to provide comprehensive assistance in the event of any external military threat.
What’s next?
Amidst the protest, details quickly emerged of alleged police brutality, with reports of people being badly beaten and forced to endure overcrowded prisons. After seeking, many posted pictures of their injuries on social media. The allegations of police brutality led to a new wave of demonstrations.
Friends and relatives gathered at detention centres. Women dressed in white and carrying roses linked arms and marched through the streets.
In the above picture, Women marched in big numbers down Independence Avenue, the main thoroughfare in Minsk, and were accompanied by a chorus of hooting cars.
The future of Belarus is uncertain. Many feel that there are similarities between Belarus and Ukraine in 2014, leading to whether Russia will intervene, in order to maintain Belarus within the “russian sphere of influence”. However, there is a national sense of rebellion and change against Lukashenko’s rule. The police response to the protests have been very aggressive and violent. Police have started going around the courtyards outside blocks of flats, grabbing anyone they can lay their hands on, including teenagers who were not even protesting. And this has angered people further. Belarusians have shouted from their balconies, swearing and screaming at police to go away. Police have responded by firing rubber bullets at the balconies.
We will see the future of Belarus unfolding in the next few weeks, possibly becoming either a democratic, or authoritarian nation.